Calculateus

Stolen Base Success Rate Calculator

Calculate a base stealer's success rate from stolen bases and times caught stealing.

Result

Stolen Base Success Rate
80%

Sabermetric research generally puts the break-even success rate (where stealing helps rather than hurts run expectancy) around 70-75%, since the cost of an out is higher than the value of the extra base gained.

About the Stolen Base Success Rate

The Stolen Base Success Rate Calculator turns a baserunner's stolen bases and times caught stealing into a single success percentage, the standard way to judge whether a player's base-stealing attempts are actually paying off. It's useful for anyone evaluating whether a runner's aggressiveness on the bases is a net asset or a net cost to their team.

How It Works

Enter the number of stolen bases and the number of times caught stealing. The calculator adds the two together to get total attempts, then divides stolen bases by that total and multiplies by 100 to produce the success rate percentage.

Stolen Base Success Rate = (Stolen Bases / (Stolen Bases + Caught Stealing)) x 100.

Examples

Efficient Base Stealer

A runner with 24 stolen bases and 6 times caught stealing has 30 total attempts, giving a success rate of 80.0%, calculated as 24 divided by 30 times 100.

Struggling on the Bases

A runner with 8 stolen bases and 7 times caught stealing has 15 total attempts, giving a success rate of 53.3%, calculated as 8 divided by 15 times 100.

Advantages

  • Converts raw counting stats into a rate that's directly comparable between runners with different attempt volumes.
  • Makes it easy to check a runner's rate against the commonly cited sabermetric break-even threshold.
  • Works for any sample size, from a single season down to a specific stretch of games.

Common Mistakes

  • Judging a base stealer's aggressiveness purely on stolen base totals without checking the success rate that came with them.
  • Drawing conclusions from a very small number of attempts, where one or two caught-stealing plays can swing the percentage dramatically.
  • Ignoring the sabermetric break-even value: research generally puts the point where stealing helps run expectancy at around 70-75% success, so a rate below that range may indicate net-negative attempts even with a decent stolen base total.

Edge Cases to Watch For

  • At least one stolen base attempt, stolen bases plus caught stealing greater than zero, is required, since the calculator returns an error when there's no attempt data at all.
  • A runner with zero caught stealing attempts and any stolen bases returns a 100% success rate, which reflects a small or perfect sample rather than a guarantee of future performance.
  • The calculator doesn't weigh the game situation of each attempt, such as score, inning, or base-out state, so two runners with the same percentage may have created very different amounts of actual value.

Common Use Cases

  • Baseball analysts and front offices evaluating whether a player's stolen base attempts are adding or subtracting run expectancy.
  • Fantasy baseball managers assessing the reliability of a speed-based player's stolen base production.
  • Coaches deciding whether to give a runner the green light more or less often based on their season-to-date efficiency.
Written & fact-checked by the Calculateus TeamLast updated August 5, 2026How we verify our formulas

Frequently asked questions

Why does a 70%+ success rate matter so much?

Getting caught stealing costs a team an out and removes a baserunner, which is expensive in terms of run expectancy - research on run expectancy tables shows that unless a runner succeeds around 70% of the time or better, attempting steals actually reduces the team's expected runs on average.

Related calculators

Race Time PredictorPredict your finish time at a new race distance from a recent race result, using the Riegel formula.Karvonen Target Heart Rate CalculatorCalculate personalized training heart rate zones using the Karvonen method, which accounts for your resting heart rate.Swim Pace CalculatorCalculate your swimming pace per 100 meters or yards from total distance and time.Cycling Speed CalculatorCalculate your average cycling speed from distance and ride time.

Conclusion

Stolen base success rate reframes raw stolen base counts as an efficiency question, which is closer to how the play actually affects a team's run expectancy. Rates comfortably above the roughly 70-75% break-even range are generally read as a net positive, while rates below it suggest the attempts may be costing more outs than they're worth.